As we enter the second half of 2026, the UK and European meat markets are exhibiting distinct trends among different proteins. Beef and lamb are facing structural shortages, while poultry is thriving as consumers seek better value. In contrast, pork presents more purchasing opportunities where supplies are stable and specifications are flexible.

For buyers, the main focus is not just on finding stock; it's about determining where to make forward purchases, where to maintain flexibility, and how to leverage imported alternatives to protect margins without compromising customer expectations. For sellers, the key lies in ensuring a reliable supply, clearly positioning their products, and maintaining disciplined pricing rather than chasing short-term fluctuations in the spot market.

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Beef Market Analysis

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Beef is currently the most vulnerable category in terms of supply and pricing. The number of cattle in the UK continues to decline, with Defra reporting that the UK cattle and calf population dropped to 9.3 million in June 2025, and the beef breeding herd has also decreased. This situation is not a short-term shortage that can be remedied quickly, as rebuilding the herd takes several years.

Why it matters: Domestic and Irish beef will continue to command a premium where quality, origin, and retailer confidence are important. Additionally, rising beef prices are prompting buyers to shift towards pork and poultry as alternatives. Buyers should consider securing forward contracts for key beef products, especially manufacturing beef, steak cuts, and mince, where consistency in specifications is essential. Relying on a sudden price drop carries risks. Sellers should emphasize reliability and value based on provenance. Customers are more likely to accept higher prices when they are assured of availability, adherence to specifications, and strong delivery performance.

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Lamb Market Analysis

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Lamb prices remain sensitive to seasonal supply changes, export demand, and competition from imports. In 2025, the number of sheep and lambs in the UK declined, and sheep and goat production in the EU is expected to decrease further in 2026. This situation provides a stronger foundation for UK lamb, especially if export buyers remain active.

Why it matters: While availability may improve during the summer and early autumn months, ongoing structural pressures on the flock limit the potential for sustained price weakness. Imported lamb from New Zealand and Australia will continue to play a vital role, but strong global demand suggests that imports should not be assumed to be cheap or in plentiful supply.

Buyers should not rely solely on the spot market for premium lamb products. If menus, retail promotions, or wholesale programs involve lamb, it is advisable to engage in forward discussions. Sellers should maintain their premium positioning and avoid excessive discounting during short seasonal availability periods. Overall, the broader supply situation remains supportive.

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Poultry Market Analysis

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Poultry remains the most stable option among mainstream proteins. Global consumption of poultry is expected to experience significant growth in 2026, driven by its affordability, convenience, and consumers’ tendency to switch from red meat to poultry. Why does this matter? While poultry demand shows resilience, its production is still vulnerable to factors such as feed, energy costs, labor availability, disease risks, and assurance requirements. Although chicken is considered a value protein, it is not without risks. Buyers should use poultry to enhance basket value and maintain menu affordability, but they must closely monitor feed and energy markets. Any resurgence in cost pressures can quickly impact processor pricing. Sellers should focus on positioning poultry based on its value, availability, and versatility. Foodservice and manufacturing clients will continue to require flexible formats, ranging from fresh and frozen portions to value-added and further-processing options.

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Pork Market Analysis

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Pork presents good value compared to beef and lamb. UK imports of pig meat are expected to remain stable in 2026, while domestic production is starting to recover after a previous decline in herd numbers. Why this is important: Pork has the potential to gain market share as consumers and foodservice operators look for ways to manage costs. However, the risk of African Swine Fever in Europe continues to be a concern, and disruptions in specific countries can quickly impact availability. Buyers should consider pork as a protein that can help maintain profit margins, particularly in manufacturing, foodservice, and value retail channels. Cuts such as shoulder, belly, leg, and mince may provide better cost control compared to similar beef options. Sellers should clearly communicate the value of pork. It should not be viewed merely as a cheaper alternative; instead, it can be positioned as a versatile protein option for menus, ready meals, butcher counters, and manufacturing.

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Global Trade Developments

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Global supply is uneven. Rabobank forecasts that the growth of global animal protein will slow down in 2026, with poultry and seafood leading the way, while beef and pork production are expected to decline. The EU Commission anticipates a decrease in beef, pig meat, and sheep meat production in the EU by 2026, while poultry production is expected to rise.

Why this is important: The UK and EU will need to rely on imports to balance their supply, but these import flows are influenced by various factors, including currency fluctuations, freight costs, disease outbreaks, quotas, and competing demand from Asia, North America, and the Middle East. Buyers should not assume that international supply will automatically result in lower costs. While imported products can mitigate risk, this is only effective when specifications, lead times, currency exposure, and assurance requirements are properly managed.

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Procurement Considerations

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The key procurement question for the second half of 2026 is determining where to commit and where to remain flexible. For beef and lamb, buyers should engage in more forward planning. Those involved in retail, food service, or manufacturing contracts need to identify non-negotiable items and secure their supply early on.

In the case of poultry, it is advisable to stay flexible while closely monitoring developments related to feed, energy, and disease. Although the poultry market is competitive, unexpected cost changes can still impact prices. Pork deserves more attention as a valuable tool for managing margins. Buyers who can adapt recipes, formats, or menu positioning may find pork beneficial in maintaining consumer price points.

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Commercial Risks and Opportunities

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Several factors will continue to influence market performance throughout the remainder of the year.

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Key risks include:

• Ongoing contraction in beef and lamb supply.
• Disease-related disruption across global protein markets.
• Currency volatility affecting import costs.
• Inflation in energy and labor costs.
• Changes in consumer purchasing behavior.

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Key opportunities include:

• Increasing the use of valuable protein sources.
• Greater sourcing flexibility across international markets.
• Strategies for substituting products in manufacturing and foodservice.
• Long-term supplier partnerships that improve supply security.

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Commercial Implications

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Market conditions increasingly favor businesses that prioritize planning over reactive measures. While supply remains available for all major proteins, availability, specifications, and pricing are increasingly influenced by global factors rather than just domestic conditions. For buyers, it is essential to focus on managing exposure, protecting profit margins, and maintaining flexibility in sourcing. For sellers, the opportunity lies in offering certainty, consistency, and market expertise.

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Strategic Takeaways

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1. Beef remains the category carrying the greatest procurement risk due to structural supply limitations.
2. Lamb supply remains fundamentally supported despite seasonal increases in availability.
3. Poultry continues to benefit from value-driven consumer demand and protein substitution trends.
4. Pork offers practical opportunities for margin management and product development.
5. Flexible sourcing strategies and strong supplier relationships remain critical in an increasingly interconnected global market.

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Sources: AHDB, Defra livestock statistics, USDA livestock and trade reports, MLA market updates, European Commission agricultural outlooks, UK trade statistics and selected industry publications. This analysis reflects Daly Trading's interpretation of current market conditions, trade developments and procurement considerations.

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For discussions on current market conditions, sourcing opportunities, or procurement strategies, please contact the Daly Trading team. Our traders work directly in global protein markets and are available to help you assess your options.

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