Brazilian beef production is expected to decline in 2026 as herd rebuilding gathers pace, despite strong export demand and rising cattle prices.

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Brazil’s beef production is forecast to decline in 2026 following several years of heavy female cattle slaughter, which significantly reduced cow numbers and calf availability, according to a new analysis from RaboResearch.

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The report estimates beef output will fall by 5% to 6% year-on-year, bringing total production to around 10.5 million tonnes (carcass weight equivalent). The decline reflects fewer slaughter-ready animals and a growing focus on herd rebuilding, supported by recovering calf prices.

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Despite lower production, global demand for Brazilian beef remains firm. By November 2025, exports reached a record three million tonnes, up 16% in volume and 35% in value year-on-year. China remains the largest destination, accounting for nearly half of shipments, followed by the United States.

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However, Brazil’s export outlook faces challenges in late 2026. China is set to impose a 55% tariff on Brazilian beef imports above a 1.1 million tonne quota, a move expected to reduce competitiveness in the final quarter of the year. Domestically, higher beef prices are likely to limit consumption, with per-capita intake projected to fall to around 30kg as consumers shift toward cheaper proteins such as poultry and pork.

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RaboResearch notes that while lower feed costs and rising cattle prices support short-term profitability, 2026 will be a year of adjustment for Brazil’s livestock sector, requiring careful risk management, diversification of export markets, and continued investment in quality.

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Source:Agriland, This article is a condensed and independently written summary of original reporting and market data from Agriland, adapted for Dalytrading.co.uk