The European Commission forecasts a gradual decline in EU pork production and consumption by 2035, alongside falling export share and rising global competition.

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EU pork production and consumption are expected to trend lower over the next decade, according to the European Commission’s latest medium-term outlook. Brussels forecasts a steady decline in both output and demand through 2035, as dietary patterns shift and global trade competition intensifies.

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Per-capita pork consumption in the EU is projected to fall from 23.8kg to 21.8kg, while total production is expected to drop by a similar pace. This would leave EU pork output around 19.7 million tonnes by 2035 — approximately 1.8 million tonnes lower than current levels.

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Global pork imports are expected to remain broadly stable, but EU exporters may face increasing pressure as production in major Asian markets such as China and Vietnam recovers, reducing demand for imported pork. The EU also faces stronger competition from global suppliers including the United States, Canada and Brazil, particularly across Asia.

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As a result, EU pork exports are forecast to decline gradually, with the bloc’s share of global exports projected to fall from around 28.5% to 26% by 2035. Despite the softer outlook for production and exports, EU pork prices are expected to average close to €2.00/kg over the period, remaining above key competitor pricing in countries such as Brazil and Canada.

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Source:Euro Meat News – EU pork outlook to 2035‍This article is a condensed and independently written summary of original reporting by Euro Meat News, adapted for Dalytrading.co.uk.